New_york_red_bulls_-_asn_top_-_2024_eastern_conference_champs
MLS Cup 2024

A look at the unpredictable MLS Cup as the surging Red Bulls visit a talented Galaxy

ASN's Brian Sciaretta offers up his thoughts on MLS Cup 2024 as the New York Red Bulls visit the LA Galaxy in hopes of the club's first title. 
BY Brian Sciaretta Posted
December 03, 2024
11:00 AM

NEW YORK AND LOS ANGELES are the country’s two biggest media markets and in 2024 will pit the matchups for both the World Series and MLS Cup. For Major League Baseball, the Yankees and Dodgers was an ideal matchup. For MLS, the New York Red Bulls and the LA Galaxy is not likely to being in the best ratings, but it could make for the best game.

Deep down, Apple TV, Don Garber, and other power brokers in the league would have preferred Inter Miami to come out of the East because of Messi and Friends. After that, Atlanta is a popular team, Orlando has loads of potential, and even Columbus has gone from an original team close to relocating and into one of the best teams in the league to watch. Meanwhile, the New York Red Bulls have the New York name but are still more a throwback to the original MLS era. 

As the league has continued to grow, it has moved beyond the Red Bulls/Metrostars. Unlike the league’s newer teams of the past 15-20 years or the original and successfully rebranded teams (like Sporting KC), RBNY hasn’t kept up with the pack. They’ve never drawn consistently big crowds, they haven’t become a staple of their local media market, and aside from Thierry Henry, they’ve never had the league’s best players.


Meanwhile, the Galaxy are also an original team and the league’s original teams have all have had to deal with many of the MLS growing pains that the newer teams have been able to bypass. But the Galaxy have been far more on the forefront than RBNY. For one, they have won a lot and that has kept them more relevant in both the local and national TV markets. They’ve also pushed the league to be more ambitious with bringing in David Beckham, which also led to the Designated Player rule. Also, when LAFC came into the market, the Galaxy showed how competition can lift both teams – instead of cannibalizing each other.

In terms of league history, the final is great. Two originals who have been through the ups and downs of it all. The two biggest cities are represented. But that history doesn’t make this the most glamours final in 2024.

As for the game itself, there is a lot to talk about.

 

RBNY DP production

 

The Red Bulls are on an unbelievable run in these playoffs: win away over Columbus, win at home vs. Columbus, win away over NYCFC, win away over Orlando. Such a run can never be attributed to one thing. Yes, their defense has raised its game. Yes, Carlos Coronel has been phenomenal in the playoffs.

But the playoffs have typically been decided by designated players. The teams that advance typically have their best players play to the level that earned them expensive contracts.

It’s hard to remember a team in this league who has seen such a dramatic increase in DP production in the playoffs compared with the regular season. Many successful teams (including this year’s Galaxy team) have had excellent DP production in the regular season and then in the playoffs. But the 2024 Red Bulls have seen that production go from severely underwhelming in the regular season to excellent in the postseason. That has made RBNY a completely different team altogether.

The Red Bulls have three designated players: Dante Vanzier, Emil Forsberg, and Felipe Carballo.

Vanzier had 4 goals and 9 assists in the regular season across 32 games and 2101 minutes. The strong assist number was also padded by a 4-assist day in an early season win over a Messi-less Miami team. He also failed to score or assist in two Leagues Cup games.

In the playoffs, he has 2 goals and 1 assist across 4 games and 317 minutes.

For Vanzier, he has gone from a goal contribution (goal or assist) every 171 minutes in the regular season or Leagues Cup to a goal contribution every 105 minutes in the playoffs.

For Carballo, you can measure rate improvement because you cannot divide by zero. He arrived midseason after the departure of Frankie Amaya. He played a total of 8 games and 451 minutes in the regular season and didn't notch a goal or an assist. In the playoffs, he has 2 goals and 0 assists in 216 minutes for a goal contribution every 108 minutes (despite not being able to play in the Conference final).

For Forsberg, it's not about rate improvement as it is about him just being healthy. As the captain of the team, he was only able to play 1362 minutes this season (he was on the field for just 44.5% of the team's minutes). In the playoffs, he's been on the field for 353 out of a possible 360 minutes (98%).

 

When the team's three designated players go from all having marginal impacts in the regular season to having huge impacts in the playoffs, the team goes from an underperforming mediocre used car in first gear and straight into a McLaren F1 racecar in fifth gear.

It's just a different team right now and it all starts with just having their best talent all start to hit all at once.

If Carballo is healthy for the final, RBNY is in great shape.

 

LA Galaxy without Puig

 

Riqui Puig has been named to the league’s Best XI for 2024 and it’s easy to understand why. In the regular season he had 13 goals and 10 assists across 29 games and 2542 minutes. In the playoffs, he had 4 goals and 3 assists across 4 games and 360 minutes.

He also delivered the winning assist for the Galaxy’s 1-0 victory over Seattle in the Conference  Final while playing on a torn ACL. But Puig will not be able to play in MLS Cup.



How do you replace those numbers?

For a season, you can’t. For one game where anything can happen, you can if you get lucky. Other players need to step up and the it will also take better defending to ensure RBNY does not hit on all cylinders.

Marco Reus will likely get the call, and it’s a wonderful option for the Galaxy to have such an accomplished player on their squad. Yes, he’s 35 and isn’t the same player he was. But he knows how to win big games. Reus seems like the logical replacement, although he might not be able to go 90.

If that’s the case, the Galaxy are going to have to start the game strong.

 

Galaxy frustrated in West final

 

While the Galaxy won the Western Conference final 1-0 over Seattle, it was the first time LA looked ordinary in these players. The Sounders came out and put on a defensive clinic for the first 80 minutes of the game. Seattle’s defense has been good all season, but this was their toughest test considering how well the Galaxy’s offense had been having scored 15 goals in its first three playoff games.

But Seattle frustrated the Galaxy to the point where it felt like the Sounders had the upper hand. Head coach Brian Schmetzer’s defense was methodical and tactically disciplined.

Galaxy head coach Greg Vanney described it best.

“They really never let anybody get isolated in too many one-on-one situations,” said Vanney. “They are providing cover, and they are running through with our guys that are running through. They are clogging up channels a lot of times, and so sometimes it feels like there’s no space to run through, and we would stop our runs when we needed to continue our runs.”

This begs the question, can RBNY have the same level of success as Seattle. The fact that the Galaxy will be without Puig helps. But RBNY plays an entirely different defensive style. It’s less methodical and more frantic and constantly pressing. In one regard, the Galaxy was absolutely dominant against Colorado in the playoffs (9-1 aggregate win over two legs) and the Rapids play a similar system. On the other hand, RBNY plays it better and has more talent.

Even without Puig, the Galaxy should be able to get their elite wingers in Joseph Paintsil and Gabriel Pec isolated into 1v1 situations more against the Red Bulls. That will make the defensive efforts of left wingback John Tolkin and right wingback Cameron Harper as well as the three central defenders critical.

“It’s intriguing to me,” said Vanney, “that probably the two most aggressive teams in some way, shape or form in the West and the East — them on the defensive side, us on the attacking side — have found ourselves into the finals. It’s an interesting matchup, because they are not going to sit on the top and wait for us. They are going to come after us.”

The Galaxy should have more opportunities in this game compared with Seattle. But on the other hand, RBNY is better offensively than Seattle with several different points of attack flourishing. The Red Bulls will have plenty of chances too.

Both RBNY and the Galaxy have had inconsistent defenses all season. Each team should have several chances.

 

Charismatic local edge for RBNY

 

It was a very positive sign for RBNY that they won the Conference Final while starting three young players from New Jersey in John Tolkin, Daniel Edelman, and Peter Stroud along with two players from Long Island in Dylan Nealis and his brother Sean Nealis. If you throw in Californian Cam Harper, over half of the team’s staring lineup was American.

 

On the other side was Orlando who didn’t start a single American player.

Despite Austrian ownership in the Red Bull Empire, RBNY has always done well with young, homegrown players from the Tri-State Area. Even before this current generation there was Juan Agudelo, Matt Miazga, and Tyler Adams. With such long success, it makes more players from New Jersey and New York dream of becoming members of RBNY.

It is a very healthy sign for this club that it can win with locally produced players and would be better for the league if more clubs were able to do the same. It also perhaps gives neutral fans a reason to cheer for RBNY in this one.

 

Final expectations

 

It’s not the final many people wanted, but two MLS original teams going head to head with drastically different playing styles is fun.

It’s a toss-up. In terms of styles, I think the Galaxy has the edge in how they match up against the Red Bulls. In terms of form, I think the Red Bulls have the edge in that they have too many dangerous and talented players who are playing well.

I guess the tiebreaker is that the Galaxy will be at home in front of an electric crowd. With that, they should be considered the favorites. But this RBNY team has the intangibles on their side.

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