Olympic analysis
U.S. team starts off strong, cruises to 4-1 win over New Zealand at the Olympics
July 27, 2024
9:05 PM
PARIS, FRANCE – The United States Men’s Olympic team stayed alive in the tournament on Saturday after a big 4-1 win over New Zealand behind goals from four different players. That result sets up a huge contest on Tuesday against Guinea where the U.S. team will advance to the quarterfinal with a win and possibly a draw.
In the team’s opening loss to France, Marko Mitrovic’s team did not play as poorly as the 3-0 result suggested and Mitrovic still had faith in that approach as he went with the same exact starting lineup.
But unlike the loss to France, the U.S. team was extremely effective from the start and had a three goal lead by the half hour mark. In just the 8th minute, Nathan Harriel drew a penalty after he pushed forward on a set piece. The Philadelphia Union right back was tripped up in the box by Matthew Garbettt. The ensuing kick was taken by Djordje Mihailovic and converted easily in just the 8th minute.
Four minutes later, Walker Zimmerman doubled the lead when he a free kick by Mihailovic was won by Duncan McGuire. A subsequent shot by Harriel was saved but left a rebound for Walker Zimmerman to finish.
Then in the 30th minute, the U.S. struck again, but this time from the run of play. John Tolkin moved smoothly forward and linked with Kevin Paredes. A ball to Gianluca Busio left him with a shot. After an initial save, he was able to poke in the rebound.
Finally in the 58th minute, the U.S. made it 4-0 when Griffin Yow, one minute after entering the game, made a move down the right side and fed Paxten Aaronson for a goal off a shot from inside the box.
Despite sloppy defending on a New Zealand goal in the 78th minute, the U.S. team closed the game out for a 4-1 win. It wasn’t always smooth at the end, but it was enough to secure three points.
Now it sets up a finale against Guinea, which lost to France by a close 1-0 scoreline. For Guinea, it was actually a very strong performance and they played at a level that will be a tough challenge for the U.S. team. Given the results so far in Group A and in all the men’s tournament, it has been an unpredictable tournament leaving anything possible for Tuesday’s final round of group games.
The @USYNT score four goals in an Olympic game for the first time ever en route to victory over New Zealand! ????????#ParisOlympics pic.twitter.com/6kKOBcF0Nw
— Team USA (@TeamUSA) July 27, 2024
Here are some thoughts on Saturday’s events.
What went right
The biggest takeaway from the win over New Zealand is that the team’s biggest strengths in the win were the biggest weaknesses against France.
Excellent wide play: The U.S. was aggressive from wide positions against France but ultimately ineffective. There was one good opportunity when Kevin Paredes set up John Tolkin for a decent chance, but that was it. Against New Zealand, it was completely different. The U.S. team drew a penalty via Nathan Harriel. The third goal was essentially created by Tolkin and Paredes who then set up Busio. The final goal was Yow setting up Aaronson. Between the fullbacks Tolkin and Harriel, the starting wingers in Aaronson and Paredes, and then the substitute Yow, the U.S. team was getting everything it needed from the wide area of the field.
Set pieces: This U.S. team has all the necessary resources to be good with set pieces. Zimmerman, McGuire, Tessmann, Harriel, and Miles Robinson are all set piece targets. There is no reason why this team cannot generate decent chances from dead ball situations with decent delivery. On Saturday, the opening penalty and the second goal were from set pieces.
Other key positives: The first wave of substitutes were all positive. The unfortunate injury to Busio saw Jack McGlynn come into the game and the Philadelphia Union midfielder was very effective with his left foot hitting dangerous shots (with one off the post) and dangerous passes. Yow, meanwhile, is very tough to leave off the field as he has been very dangerous with his direct play from out wide.
Overall, the U.S. team came in with a direct approach. New Zealand had more possession (53-47) but the U.S. team had 44 touches in New Zealand’s box compared with just 12 for New Zealand. The U.S. team went right into the attack with almost every possession and that overwhelmed New Zealand.
Areas of concern remain
This U.S. team is still far from where it could be in terms of potential. The game against New Zealand reflected this, despite the convincing win.
Here is where the team is still lacking.
Getting McGuire involved: Duncan McGuire is the lone No. 9 center forward on this roster. His play against Orlando shows he can be a good finisher. But his role on the U-23 team is different from Orlando as he tends to drift back into the midfield with the Olympic team, help in hold-up play, and then feed the wingers. Regardless of the role, McGuire is not getting the ball nearly enough to be dangerous and he is capable of more.
Attacking up the middle: With the fullbacks having a good tournament, it has made the wide play more consequential. Against New Zealand, that worked but against France, it didn’t. The result, however, is that the U.S. team is not attacking up the middle and creating chances there. Mihailovic is the No. 10, and while he has had his dangerous moments in both games, his touches and his completed passes are low. There needs to be more variety of the U.S. team’s attack. Set pieces and wide play are two areas, attacking up the gut would open yet another dimension – which they haven’t yet.
Poor end to the games: The U.S. team has not finished both games well. Against France, they looked tired. Against New Zealand, the final 20 minutes were just sloppy. It’s normal for teams which are up by three or more goals (in this case it was 4-0 at the time) to take their foot off the gas pedal. But the U.S. team was a bit too loose and New Zealand’s goal at the end should never have happened, especially when two experienced central defenders were also culprits. That still might prove to be consequential as goal differential might still be a tiebreaker.
Injuries and cards: Mitrovic had to make a first half substitution when Busio appeared to hurt his hamstring. Then later in the half, Tanner Tessmann (who is arguably the team’s best player) picked up a yellow card. The injury to Busio was alleviated by the fact that his replacement, McGlynn, played well. But the U.S. team cannot afford to lose Tessmann for a game as the options behind him are a steep drop-off defensively. He is too good at shielding the backline. This could make for a tentative approach against Guinea.
Mental toughness: Unlike the full national team which has struggled recently to deal with tough situations in games or after tough losses, this U-23 team showed a lot of grit in bouncing back from an exhausting and hard-fought loss against France. That was the biggest concern entering into this game, but the U.S. team came out strong.
Looking forward
On Tuesday, the U.S. team will take on Guinea in a enormously important game that will decide whether the team makes it to the quarterfinal. Despite two losses and no points, Guinea can still advance with a big win over the United States and a big France win over New Zealand. On top of that, Guinea enjoyed a decent performances in its loss to France. That could have them playing with more confidence.
The injury to Busio will open the door for Mitrovic to make his first change to the starting lineup, which will likely be McGlynn. The liberal use of alternate players (who can be moved in and out of the roster) will help. With that, the likely move is that Josh Atencio comes into the game. For once, it will give a backup to both Tessmann and Busio.
Against Guinea, the U.S. should be ready to face a tough test. Guinea can still advance despite having no points from its first two games. And Guinea played France better than the U.S. team did. Guinea also was a bit unlucky against New Zealand in their opening 2-1 loss.
But this U.S. team showed a lot of positives about the team able to put the previous game behind them and come out strong. Against Guinea, the team could use another strong start to make Guinea chase. This U.S. team also thrives more in the open field with aggressive players like Yow, Aaronson, and Paredes. The good news is that Guinea needs a win and could look to open the game up early. From there, the U.S. must take advantage of its strength of having a lot of space.
Saturday’s win reflected a team that knows what it can do and is not going to get rattled when hit with a setback. But now the team will enter a game at the Olympics with momentum and a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.