Brad_guzan_-_asn_top_-_atlanta_celebrating_miami_win_-_11-10-24
MLS analysis

Thoughts on Atlanta's big upset, first round results, Curtin, Arena, & More

ASN's Brian Sciaretta breaks down the first round results of the MLS playoffs and the big coaching news with Jim Curtin and Bruce Arena. Atlanta United shocking Inter Miami was one for the books. 
BY Brian Sciaretta Posted
November 11, 2024
11:00 AM

THE WEEKEND IN MLS saw the first round of the playoffs come to an end with three decisive third games. Yes, New York City got past Cincinnati in a wild and crazy shootout. Orlando also got a late equalizer followed by a shootout victory over Orlando. LAFC clawed past Vancouver. But then there was perhaps the biggest upset in MLS playoff history as Atlanta United got past the Inter Miami show led by Lionel Messi and Friends.

There is a ton to break down from all these series with my thoughts. But we might as well talk about what everyone wants to talk about.

 

Inter Miami stunned by Atlanta

By now, everyone knows about this. I’ve been asked to do two segments on TalkSport radio in the UK to talk about it. But yes, the team that has drawn the most attention to MLS since its founding did not get out of the first round of the playoffs.

After Atlanta pulled off the upset it game two, most people figured it would end there. There was no chance of an upset in Miami for Game 3. There appeared to be even less of a chance of for an upset when Inter Miami’s Matias Rojas opened the scoring.

But then the remarkable happened. Two quick goals were scored by Atlanta United’s Jamal Thiaré. All of a sudden, Inter Miami was behind the ball and staring at an upset. Messi would equalize, and then it only seemed like Miami would pull away.

But then, late in the game, it was Atlanta United which pulled away with a late goal from Poland’s Bartosz Slisz.

Here are some thoughts.

Guzan’s fountain of youth

I put this out there on social media during the game that Brad Guzan is the most in-form American goalkeeper right now. Sure Matt Freese and Roman Celentano have done well this season. Patrick Schulte has done well over the past two years. No American goalkeeper is playing well in Europe. But over the past month? Yeah. It’s Guzan. That doesn’t mean a USMNT call-up is due for the 40-year-old. The World Cup doesn’t start tomorrow. But it’s more a reflection of how good he’s been – despite giving up a bad goal in the first game.

 

Guzan was out of this world in this series. He made a bunch of incredible saves against several Miami players, including Messi. It really should be a feel-good story to see him play so well in such a big moment.

 

Was this foreseeable?

This was a stunning result, but it really shouldn’t have been. Inter Miami had some bad results this season in the middle of their long stretches of dominating runs. Sometimes, these games came against top teams.

On top of this, Inter Miami performed poorly in the CONCACAF Champions Cup. They didn’t compete well with Monterrey in both legs (compared with the Columbus Crew, who beat Monterrey and Tigres).

There were signs along the way that Inter Miami was vulnerable.

 

Looking ahead to 2025

 

Inter Miami has some expensive and talented young players. But the team was very reliant on the older generation. Can the younger group handle the burden?

But Messi and Company are paid a lot of money to win, and they’ll not want to leave Inter Miami without silverware. The list of top players who came to MLS and never threatened in the playoffs (let alone the CONCACAF Champions Cup) is long. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Andrea Pirlo, Steven Girard, Frank Lampard, and Didier Drogba never won a playoff series combined. Thierry Henry did, but never made it to MLS Cup. It’s not easy to be older and then be required to play the best soccer at the end of a long and tough season (which is required in a playoff format).

The questions comes back how angry and motivated these players are in 2025. It will only be harder than it was this year.

 

Credit to Atlanta

 

It’s not only  that Atlanta pulled off this upset, but rather how they’ve been able to sustain this upward trajectory starting the game before Decision Day, and keep it going. They somehow got into the playoffs due to a miraculous string of results (including their own win in Orland). Then they went to Montreal and pulled off a win. Then they get by Inter Miami including a win in Miami.

It’s all turning up roses for them. And they’re getting a lot of contributions from a lot of different players – offensively, defensively, and with Guzan. Interim head coach Rob Valentino has this club believing in themselves.

For Atlanta, it was all about effort and intensity. The reason playoff or knockout soccer is prone to upsets it that the intensity is dialed up to a level that a 34-game season cannot match. The fight required to live to see another day is just different – and it can be an equalizer when there is a talent discrepancy. Over a long season, the better teams rise to the top. In knockouts, intangibles are more of a factor and they tend to break the way of the team that brings intensity.

The biggest problem Atlanta faces right now is the international window. A long break can halt momentum, and it will be hard to keep that going in weeks between games.

 

Orlando gets past Charlotte in a shootout

 

This wasn’t a huge upset given the way Charlotte has improved since their midsummers signings began to settle into the team. But Charlotte was minutes from winning this game, only to concede a late penalty after grabbing Duncan McGuire’s shirt (followed by an ugly fall which separated his shoulder). Then in the shootout it was the Pedro Gallese show. Once he saved the first two Charlotte attempts, it was essentially over.

It was a tough ending for Charlotte, who were so close to winning the game. Their defense had been very good over the last two games, but offensively they scored just one goal in 270 minutes. That shouldn’t be good enough to advance, regardless of how well their defense played.

I like the track Charlotte is on right now. Dean Smith was better than I expected and he really helped to turn the team around midseason. The team doesn’t need many significant changes.

As for Orlando, they weren’t great in this series but that’s credit to Charlotte. The truth is that Orlando has only lost twice outright (not including a shootout loss) in 11 games. On top of that, they benefit the most from the string of upsets in the Eastern Conference. With Inter Miami, Columbus, and Cincinnati out, Orlando will host the remaining games it plays.

Orlando has a very realistic goal of making MLS Cup.

 

New York City upsets Cincinnati

 

This shouldn’t have surprised people. Cincinnati wasn’t consistently good in the final months of the season. NYCFC has also been up and down, but lately they’ve been finding ways to get results even when they don’t play.

Such was the case in the shootout win over Cincinnati in Ohio following a 0-0 draw. NYCFC didn’t necessarily play well, but got a bit lucky with Cincy’s poor finishing. Then in the shootout, there was a combined stretch where there were five missed penalties before NYCFC found a winner. Cincy had two failed penalties which could have won the game.

Coincidentally, two American players were the best for NYCFC in this game. Goalkeeper Matt Freese and midfielder James Sands. Both should be involved in the USMNT January camp. Sands in particular might have been the best player in the series over three games as he was sharp on both sides of the ball.

For Cincinnati, there are more questions than answers. For the second straight season, the team wasn’t able to equal its regular season success. This season, however, the fade started to happen earlier and during the regular season. Yes, you can point to the team’s injured defenders – particularly Matt Miazga. But defense isn’t why this team lost.

Former MVP Luciano Acosta didn’t dominate in this series and after the series, he showed his unhappiness. Is this just heat of the moment talk? Or might he want to leave?



We will see if Cincinnati needs a rebuild or not? They seem to be willing to spend a lot for forwards, but replacing Acosta’s creativity is exceptionally difficult. It’s a gamble to spend a lot of money and replace that level of production.

I’d be concerned if I was a Cincinnati fan.

 

LAFC wins ugly vs. Vancouver

 

On Friday night, LAFC got past Vancouver with a 1-0 win in game three. Vancouver won the aggregate 4-3, but that means nothing except reveal that LAFC wasn’t good in this series and shouldn’t have a lot of confidence heading into the next round. It took a goal from Mateusz Bogusz to send them through.

But Vancouver was the better team for long stretches in this series. They seem to be a team trending in the right direction and should feel good about their squad entering into 2025. They should be able to compete for a home playoff advantage in the first round next year.

LAFC gets to play the Seattle Sounders in the next round. LAFC has owned Seattle for the last several years, but Seattle is playing better. Historically, that hasn’t meant much of anything and LAFC should be the favorite getting to play at home. It’s not as if Seattle was terribly convincing in its series win over Houston either.

 

Curtin fired in Philadelphia

 

Everyone has had their say about this and it’s old news, but I haven’t had a chance to opine on this for this website yet.

This is a bombshell given Curtin’s success and his popularity among Union fans. The Union were within a minute of winning MLS Cup in 2022 except for a cruel series of events. But all a coach can do is help to get a team into the right position. The players have to actually do the work.

Yes, 2024 was not a good year for the Union and that team is going to have a tough time ahead with significant rebuilding needed. But Curtin seemed to escape a lot of blame for the team’s struggles. Most of it went to ownership’s lack of spending but still wanting to be among the elite in the league.

It might just be the best thing for Curtin on a number of different levels. For one, he leaves still beloved by the fanbase. Very few managers leave their post in a popular state. Also, this firing from the Union was expensive as Curtin still had two years left on his deal – which was a significant raise from before.

Curtin is going to be in high demand, and he can be highly selective in what team he wants to coach next. He can afford to take 2025 off, if he wants, just to wait for the right job to open. If he wants to explore Europe, he can do that too. His friend and former teammate Rapha Wicky is also looking for a job after leaving Young Boys in March.

Curtin will be fine. The Union, however, has more concerns. There were rumblings that Curtin and Sporting Director Ernst Tanner were not on the same page. Tanner is well connected and should be able to find a coach. But then he has to fill a number of big spots on the team, hope the young players bond with the new manager, and hope the large fan base embraces the team’s new look. Curtin’s hometown appeal really helped boost the team’s popularity which saw stadiums mostly full over the past five-six years.

I remember when the Union were struggling before Curtin and even in the first few seasons under Curtin. The team was an afterthought in the Philadelphia sports market. In recent years, they grew to having a prominent spot on Philly sports talk radio and local news outlets. It can easily go back in that direction.

 

Bruce Arena takes control of San Jose

 

Bruce Arena is back and now he’s both the Sporting Director and Head Coach of the San Jose Earthquakes. For San Jose, this was a no brainer. Nothing has worked for them for years and they are now coming off the Wooden Spoon and one of the worst seasons in league history.

Sure, there are times when you have a coaching vacancy and you go with a high-upside outsider. Then there are times when you go with a run of the mill journeyman. Then there are times when you just have to go with an old reliable. San Jose is in a position where it can’t mess around, and Arena is the obvious pick.

Yes, his firing in New England was due to conduct that was never fully explained. But it’s also coming in an age where maybe people aren’t going to get worked up about something where details remain murky.

What is equally important with Arena is that he will report directly to ownership as the Sporting Director. The existing General Manager, Chris Leitch, will report to Arena. This ensures that Arena will have nearly complete say as to what happens with the team. This is a significant break from the existing structure that had the Quakes stuck in a rut.

This doesn’t guarantee success, but it’s safe to say the Quakes will improve in Year 1 just because things couldn’t get any worse. Exactly how much the team can improve remains to be seen. There are enough teams in the Western Conference that aren’t in great shape where it becomes easy to envision a Quakes team making some inroads.

But Arena has led teams to needed changes at every club he’s coached minus the weird Red Bulls stint. He might be 73 years old, and this might be his last gig, but there’s no reason to bet against him – especially when he’s heavily motivated.

 

Post a comment

AmericanSoccerNow.