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MLS Analysis

The Final 4: A look at RBNY, Orlando, LA, & Seattle plus coaching notes

Breaking down the four remaining teams in the MLS playoffs, how did they get here, what to expect in the Conference Finals. Plus, the coaching carosel continues to turn - thoughts on the new hires.
BY Brian Sciaretta Posted
November 26, 2024
5:00 AM

AND NOW THERE ARE FOUR. The 2024 MLS season is over except for the New York Red Bulls, Orlando City, the Seattle Sounders, and the LA Galaxy. Proving why you never bet on MLS, this is  now how people were predicting this season to go. It’s hard to believe that at the stage, there is no Columbus Crew, Inter Miami, LAFC, FC Cincinnati, Philadelphia Union, or Atlanta United.

The playoffs have brought its own drama, and it has left us with these four teams. The conference semifinals round games weren’t overly dramatic, but it is hard to argue with the results. Let’s break it down with my thoughts.

 

The Eastern Conference

 

NYCFC 0-2 New York Red Bulls

 

The Red Bulls are playing inspired soccer right now in the playoffs. Two wins over Columbus and now a win away over rivals New York City is eye-opening. The last time the Red Bulls faced its local rivals, they lost at home 5-1. The Red Bulls faced the Crew twice in the regular season, and lost each game while conceding six goals in total. The opening game of that series, the Red Bulls kept a clean sheet in Ohio.

The winning formula for the Red Bulls is simple: DP production, homegrown energy, and goalkeeping.  

RBNY Designated Players: The playoffs are always about DP production. The games are more intense, and this is when the talent rises to the top. In the opening 1-0 win over Columbus, Felipe Carballo scored. In the 2-2 draw with Columbus (followed by the shootout win for RBNY), it was Dante Vanzier and Emil Forsberg with the goals. Now in the 2-0 win over NYCFC, it was Carballo and Vanzier.

To sum it up, all five of the team’s goals have been scored by Designated Players.

Not many saw this coming. Vanzier has long been seen as an overpriced disappointment. Carballo only arrived midseason and hasn’t come close to replacing the void left by Frankie Amaya’s departure. Forsberg has been excellent when he has played but has struggled with injuries.

That disappointment matters very little right now. The Red Bulls are storming into the conference finals with their best players playing well. You can’t ask for anything more.

Homegrown Energy: There is something to be said about having local or internally developed players make significant contributions in a playoff run. For these players, it’s not about being a hired gun, but it’s about having a unique bond with the club. That bond can create energy that is contagious throughout the team. Many of the successful MLS teams over the past decade have had big contributions from young, internally developed players (Philadelphia, Seattle, Columbus, etc). There is no denying that the performances and the energy supplied by Daniel Edelman and John Tolkin have been significant to the wins. Tolkin might be sold soon, but he is all in right now. The same with Edelman. These players have found another level and have inspired their teammate.

Goalkeeping: Carlos Coronel has been phenomenal in these playoffs and the team might not be here right now. Against NYCFC, the Paraguayan keeper made a series of enormous saves that were the difference.

Andres Reyes: it also needs to be mentioned that RBNY central defender Andres Reyes had a phenomenal game against NYCFC. The Colombian is coming into his own and is playing like the player the team has always hoped he could be.

Luck: Some are going to point to the fact that RBNY has been really lucky over its three playoff games. That’s fair. But every successful playoff team needs some luck. But luck alone doesn’t give a team two road wins. Sure, some shots hit the post, but RBNY also had some chances not go their way too.

NYCFC’s downfall: as for the other New York team, they just weren’t consistent. They showed at times they could get big wins. But the upset over Cincinnati in the first round was also due to FCC struggling in the second half of the season. The team was over-reliant on Alonso Martinez and Santiago Rodriguez and eventually, there was going to be a time when both were off their game.

 

Orlando 1-0 Atlanta United

 

Orlando City advanced to the conference final after ending Atlanta United’s playoff run with a 1-0 win in Florida. The winning goal came from Ramiro Enrique.



After defeating Montreal in Canada and then posting a stunning upset over Inter Miami which was capped by a win in Florida, Atlanta United’s season is over.

Here are some thoughts.

Orlando’s rides its defense: For Orlando, they are playing the best defense of any team in the playoffs. In four games (three against Charlotte and one against Atlanta), they conceded just one goal.

"A lot of credit for the players in this type of [game],” Orlando head coach Oscar Pareja said afterward on his team’s defense. “You have to be solid. Our game model is always with the energy to propose the game and trying to have the initiative. We find a lot of lower blocks, and sometimes it is a risk for if you have those spaces in behind. But we really were a concentrated team tonight. Then in the second half, when [Atlanta United] put their lines higher and we felt that we were defending deeper than we wanted. We didn't consider shots or any dangerous situation there. So that's something that made me feel optimistic when I see a solid team like we were tonight.”

What’s impressive about Orlando’s defense is that they aren’t even conceding many chances that are just missed by opponents. They are completely shutting opponents down. Atlanta got nothing from Saba Lobzhanidze and Pedro Amador, who were excellent against Miami.

Home field advantage: Orlando’s stadium is great when the fans are into it. That isn’t always the case, but it was against Atlanta. But you could sense that Orlando City’s players were inspired by the crowd – which had the stadium shaking. The good news for Orlando is that the Conference Final was a quick sell out.

Atlanta United: the playoff run should be viewed as a success, despite the tough end. The team did much, much better than anticipated (and it was aided by a superb string of games by 40-year old goalkeeper Brad Guzan, who masked the team’s shortcomings for a brief time).

But the season overall was not great. A ninth-place finish in the East is unacceptable for a team that is as ambitious and well-supported as Atlanta. Eventually, the reality of the team’s disappointments will sink in, and changes will be made. Atlanta did all it can do with an interim manager. This team needs stability and plenty more pieces.

 

Orlando City vs. the New York Red Bulls

 

This is a great Eastern Conference final given the differences in how these teams got to this point. This is very hard to predict.

Orlando is here because of defense, RBNY is here because of its designated players. Both team’s are playing inspired soccer and are well-coached.

In a neutral venue, I would pick the New York Red Bulls because it’s typically a safer bet to go with a team that is getting top production from all three designated players compared with a defensive oriented team. In this league, it’s hard to shut down multiple expensive points of attack.

But playing at home will give Orlando a big edge. It’s also very difficult to foresee a team making a playoff run to the final with three away wins – which is what RBNY must do to advance to MLS Cup. Getting to this point has required RBNY to get lucky and in all three playoff games, RBNY has had to barely cling on in the second half.

How do you predict that? I can see Orlando winning decisively and I can see Orlando winning a squeaker. I can also see RBNY winning a squeaker. I can’t see RBNY winning decisively.

At the risk of being very wrong, I think RBNY wins another squeaker. I’ll go with my initial instincts that the playoffs are a test of designated players. If that is the deciding factor, the edge is RBNY. On top of the DP’s, Lewis Morgan hasn’t even factored into the playoffs – but he could. Orlando can defend, but the Red Bulls have multiple points of attack.

 

Western Conference

 

LA Galaxy 6-2 Minnesota United

 

Nobody should be surprised that the Galaxy defeated Minnesota at home. But the 6-2 beat down was beyond impressive. It was the most complete performance of any team in the playoffs, so far. The attack was so balanced: two goals from Gabriel Pec, two goals from Joseph Paintsil, and two goals from Dejan Jovelji?. Pec was close to a hat trick, but failed to convert a penalty late in the game. While he didn’t score, Riqui Puig assisted on the opener but was largely responsible for carving the game open with his passing.

Galaxy has too many weapons: This is redundant and self-explanatory, but shutting down the Galaxy right now in next to impossible. It requires most of the team’s best players to have an off night, and at the same time, it requires a lot of luck. The Galaxy players were all in form, and Minnesota had no luck.

 

Galaxy’s defense: If the Galaxy has a concern right now, it’s the defense. The team can be vulnerable in the backline at times, and they conceded 50 goals in the regular season. Kelvin Yeboah scored twice in this game, and he has been great this season. When the attackers are on, it doesn’t matter. But in a tight game, the Galaxy isn’t the best defefnsively.

Minnesota’s exit: Despite the ugly score, Minnesota just lost to a better team. The team still overachieved based on were everyone thought they would be in the first few months of the season. They hired their head coach Eric Ramsay late. Emmanuel Reynoso had an embarrassing exit. Teemu Pukki’s struggled. With all of that, no one expected much from this group. But Ramsay did very well and Yeboah was a massive addition midseason. They still have a lot of work to do, but fans should be happy with how the team fought into the postseason and then the final eight.

 

Los Angeles FC 1-2 Seattle Sounders

 

A series of wasted chances by LAFC, opportunistic finishing by Seattle, and great goalkeeping from Stefan Frei has the Seattle Sounders into the Western Conference Final. After years of LAFC dominating this rivalry, Seattle was able to pull off the upset.

What makes this even more difficult for LAFC is that they struck first in the second half via Ryan Hollingshead and took a lead into the hour mark. But then an own-goal equalizer and then a Jordan Morris winner in the 109th minute was enough for Seattle.

 

LAFC’s expensive downfall: Let’s face it, the warning signs were here with LAFC after the first round when they struggled to get past Vancouver. Instead, they did just enough to get to this point. But when they ran into a hot goalkeeper and an inspired defense, the attack sputtered. They got nothing from Denis Bouanga, nothing from Oliver Giroud, nothing from Mateusz Bogusz.

This game was more about what LAFC couldn’t do.

Seattle made the big plays: Even as LAFC failed, Seattle succeeded. Jordan Morris made the big play of this game with the winning goal on a really nice turn and quick shot. This core has been together for so long and has achieved a lot, they are still dangerous. Most importantly, Seattle knows how to win when not playing their best. Not many teams can say that. This team hasn’t convinced against Houston or LAFC, but they’re still standing. They’re survivors.

 

LAFC’s future: one big question in this offseason is whether Steve Cherundolo will survive as the head coach. The price that ownership paid on this group creates a responsibility to do well. The USMNT legend might not survive this and we’ve seen other teams make changes for far less.

 

LA Galaxy vs. Seattle

 

Unlike the Eastern Conference final, this one has a decisive favorite. The Galaxy has scored 15 goals in the playoffs and they have too many points of attack. They’re getting massive DP production and they’re getting production from players behind them. On top of all that, they’re playing at home.

 

Seattle arguably is better defensively. That alone can give them a fighting chance. Yes, stranger things have happened than Seattle upsetting the Galaxy. Yes, this is MLS and its among the most unpredictable leagues in the world.

But a talented Galaxy team, with momentum, playing at home, and having their best players producing, they should feel good about their chances.

 

MLS Coaching notes

 

There has been a lot of news in the world of MLS coaching positions.

Nick Cushing is out at NYCFC. This shouldn’t be surprising. He took control of the team in the middle of the 2022 season. Initial returns were decent, but 2023 was ugly and this past season only saw modest success before losing at home to their archrivals in the playoffs. City Football Group likely wants to invest heavily in the team as they prepare for their new stadium.

Vanni Sartini is out in Vancouver and this news was probably more surprising than the rest. He was a “vibes” manager who got the team believing in themselves again. Tactically, he wasn’t as strong but his team was in position to knockout LAFC. It’s easy to see another team taking a chance on Sartini soon.

Olof Mellberg is the head coach of St. Louis CITY after the club fired Bradley Carnell earlier in the season and saw John Hackworth coach the rest of the season on an interim basis. Melberg is a legendary player with Sweden national team and with clubs such as Juventus and Aston Villa where he played as a centerback. As a manager, he has only coached in his native Sweden, most notably two stints with Brommapojkarna who he led to back-to-back promotions and then a 10th place finish most recently.

This is an out of the box hire with a coach who knows nothing about this league. How quickly will he adjust? How will he connect with a different group of players? This is certainly a risky hire.

Inter Miami announced that Javier Mascherano would be the next coach after Tata Martino stepped away. Martino has never stayed at a club gig for more than two years, so that was not a surprise. But how do you hire a manager to work with Messi, Suarez, Alba, and Busquets? Mascherano has a big name as a player and is familiar with this group of star players. As a manager, however, he has struggled immensely with Argentina’s youth national teams – his only head coaching job so far.

 

As the coach of Argentina’s U-20 team, he initially failed to qualify for the 2023 U-20 World Cup. But when Indonesia was stripped of hosting the tournament, Argentina stepped in so that they could participate. Mascherano remained as the head coach only to lose in the Round of 16 to Nigeria at home. Then as the coach for the 2024 Olympic team, Mascherano’s team was eliminated in the Quarterfinal. This makes him 0-2 in knockout games and unsuccessful in his only qualifying tournament.

It's understandable that Inter Miami needs a manager with an established relationship with their stars, but Mascherano’s record as a coach shouldn’t inspire confidence.

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