THE UNITED STATES NATIONAL team takes on Mexico in an important World Cup qualifier at Azteca stadium. The standings remain tight heading into the final three games of the Octagonal qualifying round and Gregg Berhalter’s team is looking at a situation where it probably needs four points from the coming three games to ensure qualification. Anything less would require a lot of help.

There are a lot of issues for the U.S. team heading into these games and the biggest two are: 1) the injuries to key players such as Matt Turner, Brenden Aaronson, Sergino Dest, Chris Richards, and Weston McKennie and 2) the limited minutes to other players on the roster over the past month. This would include Gio Reyna, Tyler Adams, and Tim Weah.

For Mexico, it comes into the game in third place in the Octagon - trailing Canada by four points and trailing the USMNT on goal differential. It has a favorable schedule but a slip up agianst the U.S. team could seriously complicate their effort. 

There are a lot of issues Berhalter will have to deal with to ensure that the team gets the required points. The biggest test is that two of the games this window would require results in Azteca and San Jose – two places it has never won.

For Berhalter, this requires not just managing one game, but taking an approach with all three games in mind.

Here is a look at some issues heading into the game against Mexico, how I think the approach will be, and how I think the team will line up.

Will the USMNT play its best XI in Azteca?

The big question heading into the game against Azteca is whether the U.S. team will field its strongest team in Azteca knowing that a win over Panama in the second game is perhaps even more critical.

Berhalter gave an interesting quote about this.

“I heard that argument: we should play a B team,” Berhalter said. “What I did is I took it to the staff, and we debated it, and we looked at all sides of it. We said: does this have merit? I think it was an important exercise to do for us to be able to do that. We came out with our answer, and you'll see tomorrow.”

For anyone paying attention to the U.S. team under Berhalter, this was a very “un-Berhalter” thing to say. He rarely likes to call anything a “B-team.” He never really called the 2021 Gold Cup team the “B-team” despite it being entirely different from the Nations League winning team.

Also, and perhaps even more importantly, there really isn’t a “B-team” at this stage. With these three-game windows and injuries affecting most teams, there is always going to be squad rotation built-in. For a variety of reasons, just about every game is a combination of the top 15-18 players. It’s two difficult to start the best XI every game.

This isn’t just for the USMNT either. Canada is atop the Octagon and elite players like Jonathan David, Alphonso Davies, Tajon Buchanan, and Cyle Larin have all had important moments off the bench. Christian Pulisic has scored two goals so far in the Octagon and both were when he came off the bench.

Under the format of the Octagon, most lineups are a combination of A/B players and that is probably what we will see in the USMNT lineup on Thursday night. It will probably have most of the available core together along with some consideration of yellow cards given plus a few “coin-flip” decisions being made with consideration of future games.

Berhalter’s unpredictable comments

Berhalter addressed the media on Wednesday and didn’t really reveal much of anything substantive. He refused to tip his hand in any questions over who he would start.

In addition to leaving it open whether he would start a “B-team” despite his reluctance to use that term in the past, Berhalter also made comments which were pretty atypical of him.

“Our record here is horrendous,” Berhalter said about playing in Azteca. “The odds are against us getting something out of this game, right? We know that. We realize that, and that's just how it is. We're focused on going in and being difficult to play against. But we certainly do have confidence from you know from how we grew as a team in those three games [in 2021 where the U.S. defeated Mexico three times].”

The U.S. team has indeed never won a World Cup qualifier in Azteca but it has walked away with draws in its last two qualifiers to the storied Mexico City venue (1-1 in 2017 and 0-0 in 2013). If the USMNT walks away from Azteca with a draw on Thursday night, it will be a huge step forward in the qualifying campaign and any U.S. fan would gladly take that result.

So instead of publicly saying that momentum is on the side of the U.S. team in Azteca (which would be expected of him), Berhalter is channeling the underdog role.

Berhalter’s comments are read not just by U.S. fans and media, but also by Mexico players, fans, and media.

Berhalter has been pretty unpredictable with his comments and it has yielded no clues about his approach or the team’s true mindset heading into this qualifier.

Predicted Lineup

How will Berhalter lineup his team? It might not be the “first choice” starting XI, but it is certainly not going to be entirely backups. Per usual, it is probably going to be a hybrid combination.

Here is what I am going with:

• Goalkeeper: Zack Steffen
• Right back: Reggie Cannon
• Central defense: Miles Robinson
• Central defense: Walker Zimmerman
• Left back: Antonee Robinson
• Midfielder: Tyler Adams
• Midfielder: Kellyn Acosta
• Midfielder: Yunus Musah
• Winger: Christian Pulisic
• Winger: Jordan Morris
• Forward: Jesus Ferreira

A few notes about this.

First, I think with Zack Steffen back, Berhalter will want to go with one of his two top goalkeepers. Steffen might only now just be returning to health, but he has an element of trust and comfort with the team. If it isn’t Steffen, it will be Horvath.

At right back, Reggie Cannon seemed to be ahead of DeAndre Yedlin in situations when Dest wasn’t starting or was subbed off. It is hard to see that pecking order being disrupted.

In midfielder there are a lot of tough decisions. Starting Tyler Adams on a yellow card is risky but Acosta is good enough to get the job done in Orlando against Panama should Adams be suspended. This way, you would have Adams for both of the road games – where he is most needed.

Starting Acosta and Adams together isn’t going to be great in possession, but the U.S. never has a lot of possession in Azteca. Replacing McKennie is extremely difficult, but Acosta and Adams does provide some defense. Against Panama, an Adams-Luca de la Torre pairing would be more prudent (or Acosta – de la Torre in the event of an Adams suspension).

In the other midfield position, Yunus Musah is an aggressive dribble who could work well against Mexico and having two more defensive midfielders behind him would limit how costly his turnovers could be.

Up top, Jesus Ferreira probably gets the nod over Jordan Pefok in this game given that the needed service for Pefok to be effective probably isn’t going to be there. He could potentially be invisible for long stretches where Ferreira can also drift back into the midfield to make plays for his wingers.

As for the wingers, Pulisic is in form and is fit. He is the best U.S. player on this roster and should also be fit for the Panama game as well. The other wing position could fall to Jordan Morris, who typically likes to play as a left winger but could change with Pulisic during the game. Morris isn’t a perfect fit every type of game, but this game against Mexico should offer him some space to run on counter attacks. Tim Weah isn’t going to be able to start all three games this window and he might be better fit for a game where the U.S. is going to be on the front foot more. Morris is a straight counter-attacker.

There is some talk about Gio Reyna's role and while his return is big for the U.S. team, it's hard to see him starting in Azteca. He looked tired over the weekend in a start against Koln. He played well and went 90 minutes, but was tired the final 20. At Azteca, he would probably be tired sooner. It's far easier to see him coming off the bench against Mexico. 

The Mexico WCQ finale

One final note, and a bit of a bittersweet story, is that this very well could be the final installment of this great rivalry in a World Cup qualifying setting. Neither team will take part in World Cup qualifying for the 2026 cycle. After that, CONCACAF will move forward with six spots in a 48-team World Cup field.

Nothing has been determined yet, but it is very easy to see CONCACAF changing its format to handle that number of spots and a single table (the Hex, now the Octagon) might no longer make sense. If it goes into multiple tables, the U.S. and Mexico will almost surely be seeded in different tables.

It is sad in a way because while the Gold Cup (and most recently the nascent Nations League) has given some great installments in rivalry, the World Cup qualifiers have been the heart of USA-Mexico. Yes, there have been some great friendlies and the most important installment happened at the 2002 World Cup (without forgetting the knockout win at the 1995 Copa America where the U.S advanced in a shootout), the regular installments in Ohio and Azteca have been the most defining chapters.

This rivalry has never been more important than it is now, and now it is coming at a time when its future is pretty uncertain.