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MLS analysis

MLS thoughts: Orlando surging, Philly's puzzling win, Galaxy's porous defense, and more

ASN's Brian Sciaretta offers up all of his thoughts on the busy Wednesday night in MLS, with the playoffs fast approaching. 
BY Brian Sciaretta Posted
September 19, 2024
8:05 AM

THE MIDWEEK SLATE of MLS games gave us some of the expected, and a lot more of the unexpected. While the middle of the MLS season can see the unpredictable parity in full force, the end of the season typically is a more accurate reflection of how good or bad teams are and what their form will be heading into the playoffs. We’re at that stage now where we learn a lot about teams.

A lot of these lessons were on full display. Here were some of my takeaways.

 

Union impress, NYCFC disappoint

 

The Philadelphia Union were on everyone’s preseason list as one of the East’s best teams. Yes, many pundits had them behind Inter Miami, Columbus, and Cincinnati, but the Union were seen as close or at the level of those top Eastern teams. But the Union had a bad start to the season. Since then, they had some good runs, and some clear setbacks.

But on Wednesday, the Union had their best game of the season in a stunning 5-1 win over NYCFC in the Bronx. There were a lot of things at play in this game. The Union had some great moments, NYCFC was sloppy. But there was luck in that NYCFC goalkeeper Matt Freese was off his game and that City hit the woodwork twice.

But the stats in this game don’t align with the score. While that isn’t always uncommon, this one was especially skewed.

NYCFC outshot Philly 26-12 overall, 18-9 in shots in the box, and had an 9-7 edge in shots on frame. NYCFC had 515 completed passes compared with 249 for the Union. They also had 29 touches in Philly's box compared with 20 for the Union in NYCFC's box.

But the Union worked so hard defensively. They had 11 tackles compared with just one for NYCFC. Philly had a 12-2 edge in interceptions. 24-13 edge in clearances. Having Leon Flach back to sit in front of the backline has helped Philly.

I am not the biggest xG stat person, but NYCFC had an XG of 2.96 and the Union were at 1.77.

With these numbers, NYCFC should actually be expected to win a lot of games playing this well. Losses happen and things don't always correlate, but getting blown out is weird.

Moving forward, how will this game affect NYCFC? The fact that this team hasn't won in eight games doesn't reflect well. Then they put out an effort which could translate into a win, but were blown out after several mental lapses. NYCFC is a tough team to predict right now.

As for Philly, they're back above the playoff line. It's hard to see them being considered among the best in the East. But no one will want to play them, and they've picked a good time to start trending up and they have one of the hottest forwards in Tai Baribo, along with a few other scoring options that make it tough for opponents just to focus on Baribo. This could be the last run with most of this core group.

 

Portland surge past the Galaxy 

After a terrific 4-2 comeback win over rivals LAFC on Saturday, the LA Galaxy travelled north to Portland and were defeated by the same 4-2 scoreline. The Galaxy remains in first place, and this game accurately reflected that Gregg Vanney’s team can score goals. They having very good options in Gabriel Pec, Joseph Paintsil, Dejan Jovelji?, and Marco Reus with Riqui Puig pulling the strings.

The Galaxy’s defending is the most important question. It’s cliché but it’s also true that defense wins championships, especially in a playoff format. Other teams will be able to score goals with quality players, and that advantage is neutralized. Plus, it’s very unlikely everything will always click offensively in every game throughout the playoffs. Good defenses are far more reliable.

Take this game. The Galaxy’s offense was fine. Paintsil and Pec had goals. But when the Galaxy had to stop someone at the caliber of Evander, they just couldn’t do it. Evander is an MVP candidate with 14 goals and 18 assists, and it’s hard to stop him. But being an MLS Cup contender requires teams to be able to stop someone like that. The Galaxy wasn’t even close. Evander had 2 goals, one assist, four chances created, and 10 shots.

The concerns I have about Portland are even significant. Take away Evander (if he has a bad game), what’s there?  It’s true that playoff games are typically more reliant on Designated Players, but Portland has all of its eggs in the Evander basket. That’s not a bad basket, but their attack isn’t varied.

 

RSL gets a boost

 

Real Salt Lake as trending in the wrong direction since Leagues Cup ended, but the cure for that might have been a visit from one of the league’s most disappointing teams in FC Dallas. It’s nice to see that Alan Velasco is back for FCD after recovering from his torn ACL, but this team is underperforming in too many areas for it to matter much. They are heading into an offseason with soul-searching.

This game was about RSL showing signs of turning around a skid where they’ve lost three of four. But playing even without the suspended Chicho Arango, RSL saw backup forward Anderson Julio turn in a great two-goal performance including this stunner.



RSL got the win it needed. They’re back into second place. Hosting playoff games is key because Utah gives RSL a big homefield advantage. More than the result, this game was a very good sign of confidence from an RSL team that was tough to read.

 

Orlando continues rise

 

With both New York teams playing poorly, the door was open for another team to move towards the top of the East. Orlando have taken the ball and run with it, and Wednesday’s 2-0 win over Charlotte now has given the club eight wins in their last 11 games. This was also the team’s third straight clean sheet.

Orlando is checking a lot of boxes. Good offense, good defense, good coaching. Can this be the year when they finally start putting it all together in the playoffs? What I liked about this game was that it showed the team’s ability to both break defensive lines, and break down defenses that are condensed in the box.

Orlando showcased different layers in their attack. When you combine that with an in-form defense, there are a lot of reasons to like this team now.

“We played against a very difficult rival in Charlotte FC, who played very organized,” Oscar Pareja said afterward. “It is difficult to break the lines, and they are one of the teams in Major League Soccer that probably are just condensed very well in the box. It's difficult to create sequences that affect those spaces. That's why the value of the game today and the points and scoring two goals against them just makes us feel good.”

The problem for Orlando, however, is that the East just has so many good teams. Getting into the top five is one thing. But getting past Miami, Colombus, and Cincy is a different question entirely.

As for Charlotte, they’re winless in six games. There was hope that the team would improve with their summer signings. That hasn’t happened. USMNT defender Tim Ream was exposed on Orlando’s second goal from Duncan McGuire, who is the line-breaking forward of this group.

 

 

Other notes

 

I like some of the youth with the New England Revolution, but this team can't wait for the season to end after a 2-2 draw at home to a Montreal team that should also fall short of the playoffs. I like some of the youth on the Revs. Esmir Bajraktarevic is a loss for the U.S. program, and he had a nice goal in this one. I think Peyton Miller should be in the mix for the U.S. U-20 left back spot and he was also good in a full 90 in this game.



Alexey Miranchuk scored a great goal for Atlanta United in a 2-2 draw with Inter Miami. Atlanta is within reach of the wild card spot, although they don't look like a team that will go far. Inter Miami is rotating and preparing for the playoffs, where they'll have homefield throughout once they wrap up the Supporters' Shield soon.



Columbus defeated Toronto 2-0 because they're just better in every area of the game.

Minnesota had been trending upward with three wins in their last four and the influx of new DP's this summer. But Cincinnati came to town on Wednesday and showed that the gap between Minnesota and the top teams in the league is still wide.

Sporting KC won't make the playoffs, Colorado will. But Colorado is a tough team to read. They can win big games, but also look ordinary at times. Such was the case on Wednesday when they lost to Sporting 4-1. Colorado have made some big strides this year, but seem like a team vulnerable to an upset in the playoffs.

Houston and Vancouver played to a 1-1 draw and it was nice to ses Brian White return for Vancouver and score another goal. He's such an efficient scorer in this league. Both teams should be in the playoffs, but not in line to host anything outside of the first round.



LAFC still looked sluggish in a 1-1 draw with Austin, after their collapse in the loss to the Galaxy over the weekend. The odds are that they'll get their form back soon, but it's a concern.

Seattle playing San Jose to a 2-2 draw at home doesn't reflect a good mindset for a Sounders team preparing for the playoffs. Again, this team is talented but inconsistent and sloppy defensively.

 

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