ON THURSDAY, JASON KREIS announced his 20-player roster for its Olympic qualifying tournament that begins next week in Guadalajara, Mexico. The roster previously was leaked by CONCACAF but today U.S. Soccer formally announced it.

The leak certainly created an awkward moment for players and staff assembled in Mexico but what is done, is done. Now it will be about finding a way to get to the final game.

Here is the roster as well as some thoughts.

The roster

GOALKEEPERS (3):Matt Freese (Philadelphia Union; Wayne, Pa.), JT Marcinkowski (San Jose Earthquakes, Alamo, Calif.), David Ochoa (Real Salt Lake; Oxnard, Calif.)

DEFENDERS (6):Julian Araujo (LA Galaxy; Lompoc, Calif.), Justen Glad (Real Salt Lake; Tucson, Ariz.), Aaron Herrera (Real Salt Lake; Las Cruces, N.M.), Henry Kessler (New England Revolution; New York, N.Y.), Mauricio Pineda (Chicago Fire FC; Bolingbrook, Ill.), Sam Vines (Colorado Rapids; Colorado Springs, Colo.)

MIDFIELDERS (7): Johnny Cardoso (Internacional/BRA; Denville, N.J.), Hassani Dotson (Minnesota United FC; Federal Way, Wash.), Ulysses Llanez (Heerenveen/NED; Lynwood, Calif.), Djordje Mihailovic (CF Montreal/CAN; Jacksonville, Fla.), Andrés Perea(Orlando City SC; Medellin, Colombia), Sebastian Saucedo (UNAM Pumas/MEX; Park City, Utah), Jackson Yueill (San Jose Earthquakes; Bloomington, Minn.)

FORWARDS (4): Jesús Ferreira (FC Dallas; McKinney, Texas), Jonathan Lewis (Colorado Rapids; Plantation, Fla.), Benji Michel (Orlando City SC; Orlando, Fla.), Sebastian Soto (Norwich City/ENG; San Diego, Calif.)

Mihailovic importance

In 2020, the U.S. U-23 qualifying team was very strong in attacking midfield with Paxton Pomykal, Richards Ledezma, and Brenden Aaronson. Transfers and injuries have hurt this area of the field. The midfield is heavily weighted with four defensive midfielders in Cardoso, Perea, Yueill, and Dotson although Dotson is playing mostly as a number eight.

Mihailovic is going to need to play very well in this tournament to create opportunities because he is one of the few who have this responsibility for his club. If it is not him, it has to be Saucedo or Ferreira who can play in the attacking midfield although are probably best used elsewhere on the field.

Pineda and Glad

The likely starting central defense pairing will be Justen Glad and Mauricio Pineda. This marks a very different pairing than the team had hoped for last year with Mark McKenzie and Erik Palmer-Brown. Pineda has not played with the United States internationally and Glad was last involved officially at the 2017 U-20 World Cup.

Goalkeeping isn’t a strength of this U.S. U-23 team and goal scoring is somewhat questionable. It’s hard to see this U.S. team booking a ticket to Tokyo without Glad and Pineda playing at the top of their games.

Wing play

If the U.S. team struggles without attacking midfielders, it will have to thrive on wing play along with getting the fullbacks deep into the attack. That has not been an overall strength of this team. Jonathan Lewis, Benji Michel, Sebastian Saucedo, and Uly Llanez will have to do most of the heavy lifting in this regard.

There is talent here too. Jonathan Lewis has played well internationally. Benji Michel is making his U.S. debut in this one and Sebastian Saucedo is coming off an injury. The real wild card, however, is Uly Llanez who is rated by the U.S. staff but has had a brutal season on loan at Heerenveen.

Expectations

The U.S. team fell short of qualifying in 2012 and 2016 and failing to qualify was seen as a massive disappointment due to heightened expectations.

Expectations probably shouldn’t be as high this time around for four big reasons: 1) Preseason form, 2) lack of key players getting released, 3) injuries, and 4) the outflow of key players from MLS teams to Europe.

While having MLS teams embrace selling players is overall a good thing, the one drawback it has is this particular U-23 team. The transfers/loans of Brenden Aaronson, Reggie Cannon, Mark McKenzie, and Daryl Dike has removed a huge chunk of the team’s core.

In terms of releases, no one was expecting the top players like Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie but the inability to secure the releases of players like Erik Palmer-Brown (who was released last year), Konrad de la Fuente, Luca de la Torre, McKenzie, and others outside of the elite players hurts this team.

Booking a spot in the semifinal will likely come down to the team’s opening game against Costa Rica. If the U.S. team wins that game, it can afford a loss to Mexico, and would be favored against the Dominican Republic. Those six points would likely be enough. A loss to Costa Rica, however, probably sends the U.S. team home unsuccessfully after the group stage. A draw, then it becomes a coin flip.

Costa Rica’s roster is interesting. 11/17 of the field players play for two strong teams whiting its domestic league: league leaders LD Alajuelense and fifth-place CS Herediano. Many of the players on the roster are in midseason form having played regularly in 2021. In drawing from these two teams, many players also have an established chemistry.

The U.S. team has a chance, but perhaps the reduced expectations will play in its favor. It’s not the best of situations, but it will be interesting to see if players can rise to the occasion as opposed to collapsing under the weighted expectations the last two cycles.