Max_arfsten_-_asn_top_-_columbus_crew_goal_-_11-2-25
MLS Analysis

MLS Notebook: Messi & Miami on the brink, Arfsten shines, Portland's miracle, & more

ASN's Brian Sciaretta breaks down the MLS playoffs as he opens up his notebook with his thoughts.
BY Brian Sciaretta Posted
November 04, 2025
6:55 PM

FIVE OF THE EIGHT MLS first round matchups will be decided in a third game after the second leg saw most teams play well with their backs against the wall. A few teams even raised their game to win convincingly, thereby making the final leg difficult to predict.

We are also seeing how some players stepped up as the games grew in importance

Regarding the teams, the players, and the results, here are a few thoughts on it all.

 

Seattle convincingly beats Minnesota

 

The Seattle Sounders defeated Minnesota United 4-2 in Washington to force a third game back in Minnesota. Overall, the result was deserved and based on the balance of play, Seattle should already be through. The first game saw Minnesota United goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair put on a show to gift his side the first leg.

The second leg was all Seattle. Minnesota scored two quick goals when down 3-0 to make it close, but that was largely due to Seattle losing focus defending counterattack. Those are mistakes that Seattle typically doesn’t make.

The four goals Seattle scored is more indicative of how the teams have performed this series.

The big story in the second leg is just how well Obed Vargas played. He scored two goals and was easily the MOTM. The Mexican international is starting to attract foreign interest and could fetch Seattle a sizable transfer fee although Vargas must weigh whether he wants to move close to a World Cup.

Seattle fans are happy with Vargas and how he reflects their player development, but his defection to Mexico after representing the United States is a tough pill for USMNT fans and he was one of two big losses from his class that represented the U.S. youth teams before opting to the country where their parents were born. The other was Esmir Bajraktarevic.

But Seattle is fun with how much Americans contribute to their team. Jordan Morris and Danny Musovski also scored last night. Jesus Ferreira added two assists. Christian Roldan wasn’t as good in leg two as he was in leg one but was still important to the win. Jackson Ragen anchors the backline.

As for where this series is going in the third leg, Minnesota will have an advantage playing at home but Seattle has the advantage in terms of momentum and form.

 

LAFC eliminates Austin FC

 

After defeating Austin 2-1 in the first leg, LAFC travelled to Texas and put up an even better performance in a 4-1 victory to sweep Austin FC out of the playoffs.

Nothing about the 6-2 aggregate score is surprising. Everything is going according to plan for LAFC as Denis Bouanga and Heung-Min Son continue to build very impressive chemistry. Then behind them in the midfield is nothing of a DP level, but is just highly competent.

LAFC’s defense remains a concern in single-game knockouts, but right now they are going to be an extremely difficult team to beat. Next up is Vancouver.

 

Vancouver beats Dallas

 

Vancouver is through to the next round after defeating FC Dallas in a shootout after a 1-1 draw in regulation. The game was thrilling as Dallas scored early through Petar Musa but Vancouver equalized at the death through central defender Ralph Priso-Mbongue, who got on the end of a scramble after a corner kick.

This game was surprising because of how the first leg unfolded. In that game in Canada, Vancouver completely dominated and the 3-0 win was not reflective of a game that was barely competitive.

But the second leg was surprisingly even. It was a huge swing with Dallas improving and Vancouver not nearly as sharp as the first leg.

Vancouver is lucky to be hosting the conference semifinal in Canada. This game is a total toss-up. Both teams have suspect defenses (especially Vancouver with Tristan Blackmon out) and both teams can score goals.

The question then becomes how does Vancouver defend the counterattack from LAFC?

LAFC matches up well, but Vancouver playing at home will help them.

 

Arfsten shines as Crew force Game 3

 

After Cincinnati won the first leg at home 1-0, the Columbus Crew responded with a 4-0 romp at home in the capital of Ohio. It was a result made easier by a Yuya Kubo red cared in the 38th minute, five minutes after Max Arfsten gave the Crew a 1-0 lead.

Columbus was not an elite team in the Eastern Conference this season, but they still are a well-coached team with a lot of experience. It was always going to be tough for Cincinnati. The Crew were able to raise their game with their backs against the wall.

 

Arfsten showed his class in this game, and he reminded everyone why he is in the USMNT picture. He was a remarkable 8/8 in his dribbles and was 8/12 in winning his ground duels. He had a goal and an assist in what was one of the best individual performances in the first round of the playoffs.

Heading back into Cincinnati, it’s another toss-up.

 

Portland Miracle Forces Game 3

 

The Portland Timbers forced a third tame in its series with San Diego after rookie Gage Guerra (who only signed a first team deal in July) came off the bench and scored an equalizer in stoppage time. After regulation ended second later at 2-2, Portland prevailed in a shootout.

Chucky Lozano returned from an “internal issue” that saw him frozen out the past few games, to score the go-ahead goal for SDFC in the 51st minute. But San Diego could not put the game away.

As for Portland, they are proving to be a tougher out than expected.

But San Diego at home with Lozano should be the clear favorite.

 

Charlotte battles in the Bronx

 

After being the only team to win on the road, NYCFC could not put the series away at home after losing to Charlotte in a shootout. Now the series returns to North Carolina for a game three.

Outside of a great goal from Alonso Martinez in game one to lift NYCFC to a 1-0 win, this series has been very defensive and very boring.

But Charlotte isn’t scoring or even generating chances. They haven’t scored in 180 minutes of this series. If they figure it out, they will advance. If they don’t, they will lose.

But overall, Charlotte’s offense has been very disappointing.

 

Chicago ends season at home

 

After Chicago played Philadelphia to a hard-fought shootout loss in Pennsylvania, the expectations were that the Fire would have momentum and would be even tougher in the return leg at home.

That was not the case as Chicago made several bad mistakes and crumbled in a 3-0 loss in Bridgeview. Philadelphia scored three goals in the first half and then just coasted. Ultimately, the Supporters Shield version of the team showed up.

As for Chicago, the team made a lot of progress this season but losing the second leg at home so easily will sting. The Fire fans likely could accept a loss in their return to the postseason, but they went out while not showing their best.

 

Inter Miami faces pressure

 

Here we go again, Inter Miami has more eyes on it than any other MLS team and once again faces elimination in a major tournament. Ever since acquiring Lionel Messi, Jordy Alba, Sergino Busquets, and Luis Suarez, Inter Miami has been more known for its losses than its wins.

Whether it was losses in the last two Champions Leagues to Monterrey and Vancouver, or last year’s first round loss to Atlanta, or this year’s loss to Seattle in Leagues Cup in the final.

Now, Inter Miami heads home for game three looking to avoid yet another early exit from the playoffs. With the names on their roster, there is pressure for them to deliver. Miami needs to change the narrative that their approach in buying these older star players will result in silverware.

For better or for worse, it would be disappointing for a lot of fans to continue to not see Messi involved in important games since his arrival with Miami.  

On top of this, Luis Suarez is suspended for the final for yet another incident.

Nashville is a good team that runs hot and cold in big games but they should be motivated to go to Florida for this.

Post a comment