MLS Cup preview
MLS Cup Preview and Prediction: Philadelphia and LAFC set for big showdown
November 04, 2022
6:50 PM
THE 2022 MLS Season will end on Saturday when MLS Cup crowns a champion after Los Angeles FC hosts the Philadelphia Union at the Banc of California stadium in California. As everyone knows, this is the first time since 2003 when the top two teams have met in the league’s final game.
But the league is far different now than it was then. In fact, these teams didn’t even exist at that period, and you have two teams that are built in ways that really have been possible only in the modern era of the league.
Philadelphia has a huge presence of young players, many of whom were developed within their own academy. While not many of them play regularly, they still fit the image of the team as one that is blue-collar and has complete trust in their head coach Jim Curtin, who went to high school and college in the Philadelphia area. The team is not built on imported starts but rather a captain like Alejandro Bedoya, who was always one of the hardest working American players in Europe and with the national team.
You also have players like Andre Blake and Jack Elliot, who aren’t Americans but who went to college in the country and became top players in the league through positive development in Philadelphia. There are also less-heralded imports like Jacob Glesnes and Leon Flach who were identified by Philadelphia scouts and who have fit the system beautifully.
On the flip side, you have an LAFC team who is star-studded to the point where not even all the starters they have can play. I doubt very much that Gareth Bale will even feature in MLS Cup. It’s a team that is not blue collar, instead they are glitz and glamour. They push the boundaries of what the league will allow them to spend and bring in top players in a volume that is impressive. Their manager is one of the most popular American players of his generation.
Here are some thoughts I have on the game
Philadelphia defense to be tested
The biggest story in this game is LAFC’s star studded attack going against a Philadelphia defense that is the best and most committed defense in the league. It’s not just central defenders Jake Elliot and Jacob Glesnes, the league’s defender of the year, it is also goalkeeper Andre Blake, its defensive midfielder in Leon Flach, and its fullbacks Kai Wagner and Olivier Mbaizo.
One thing that the Union have to be prepared for is LAFC’s ability to play Route 1. Last week, LAFC opened up the game against Austin playing this style and Austin conceded numerous chance with long balls over the middle. If it wasn’t for Brad Stuver, the game would have been a laugher.
Wow! ????@andreblake29 and Jakob Glesnes tag team to keep this game scoreless. pic.twitter.com/4MlzsMIdcW
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) September 17, 2022
This game is going to be the ultimate clash of strengths because Philadelphia seems better prepared defensively to handle it. Its’s going to be an interesting clash of styles.
Weathering the first 20 minutes
The Banc will have a great atmosphere in this game. Last weekend it was shaking during the win over Austin FC. It was one of the best atmospheres all season. Homefield has also been a tremendous advantage in all playoff games. In the West, all six playoff games have been won by the home team. In the Eastern Conference, only Montreal and the Red Bulls lost at home – with the Red Bulls not providing a very intimidating atmosphere.
Philadelphia has the talent to win in Los Angeles but they have to weather the storm early, or risk suffering Austin’s fate where they could never claw back into it.
Bedoya’s health
In the Eastern final, Alejandro Bedoya gritted his way through a groin injury to play the first half of the win over NYCFC. But Bedoya was replaced in the second half by Jack McGlynn – the U.S. U-20 star midfielder who is one of the Union’s top prospects. McGlynn was instrumental towards setting up the second goal in the comeback 3-1 win.
Bedoya is one of the best captains in the league, but what will Bedoya’s availability be? What will Curtin decide his threshold should be regarding his effectiveness? Does he have to be better than he was against NYCFC? Does Bedoya bring the emotional lift to the team even if he can only play the first half?
Jim Curtin says that #DOOP midfielder Alejandro Bedoya will be a true game-time decision for #MLSCup against #LAFC @TheStrikerNews pic.twitter.com/OYxFynQP5T
— Benjamin Virgen (@LAFCbenjamin) November 4, 2022
Playing in the final, even as a sub, would be quite the stage for McGlynn and it would be even a bigger moment than when Aidan Morris replaced Darlington Nagbe for Columbus in 2020 in the win over Seattle. This game would come against the road against an extreme level of talent.
Philadelphia’s attack
Philadelphia's response last week when NYCFC took the lead was remarkable. The union have scored a lot of goals this season but that was the most intense soccer they've played or season. For the last 30 minutes of the game, they were at a completely different level. The problem for them in this game is that LAFC is not going to let that happen easily.
Philadelphia really needs to score first. They are going to play fast and direct but they’re going to need to play at the level they did when they responded to NYCFC’s opening goal.
McGlynn is going to be huge in this game. Leon Flach in the midfield is not going to be on the ball much. Flach is going to be breaking up LAFC attacks and making sure the hosts can’t do what they want to do.
But McGlynn is going to be that link between the defense and getting the ball to Daniel Gazdag, Mikael Uhre, and Julian Carranza. It’s hard to see the Union finding much success if McGlynn can’t get the ball into the attack.
Prediction:
I get that LAFC is the favorite to win this. LAFC should be the favorite to win the game. The Banc is going to be and awesome 12th man.
But I am taking the Union in a 2-1 upset. I respect that the Union players would run through a brick wall for their coach. The Union team is also going to play with a massive chip on its shoulder.
LAFC’s attack is tough to bet against. But I think Philadelphia comes up big.