4313_klinsmannjurgen_isi_usmntbf02292012f051 Bernd Feil/isiphotos.com
The Hexagonal

Here's Why the U.S. Is Really Winning the Hex

Okay, the Americans aren't on top of the six-team group after the first three games, but Matt Lawson makes a pretty solid case that the Stars and Stripes are the best-positioned squad.
BY Matt Lawson Posted
April 04, 2013
10:30 AM
Editor's Note: ASN reader Matt Lawson emailed us about the Hexagonal standings relative to difficulty of games played. We liked his thinking, so we did a little light editing and posted them below.

It's a slow day at work, so let’s see the standings along with each team's Average Match Difficulty (AMD) played. Yeah, I made that metric up but who cares? I'm trying to make things simple here. If you disagree, let me know in the comments.

Current Standings
1. Panama: 5 Points (+2 GD)—Current AMD= 3.7; Next 3 AMD=7.7
2. Costa Rica: 4 Points (+1 GD)—Current AMD=5.7; Next 3 AMD=5.7
3. United States: 4 Points (0 GD)—Current AMD=7.4; Next 3 AMD=3.3
4. Honduras: 4 Points (-1 GD)—Current AMD=5.7; Next 3 AMD=6.0
5. Mexico: 3 Points (0 GD)—Current AMD=4.7; Next 3 AMD=4.4
6. Jamaica: 2 Points (-1 GD)—Current AMD=6.7; Next 3 AMD=6.3

Average Match Difficulty calculation
Tier 1
Mexico= +6
USA= +5

Tier 2
Honduras= +4
Costa Rica= +3
Panama= +2

Tier 3
Jamaica= +1

Away Match Modifier
Tier 1: +5
Tier 2: +4
Tier 3: +3

Example: USA had played @Honduras (+4 and it was away against a Tier 2 team so +4) Costa Rica (+3) and @Mexico (+6 away +5) for a total of 22. 22/3= 7.4 AMD

Conclusions
So Panama is in first, but it has by far the lowest AMD, having played twice at home and in its easiest road match. Costa Rica, U.S., and Honduras are all sitting on four points, but the Americans' AMD is easily the highest in the group. Jurgen Klinsmann's team has already played its two hardest away matches and a home match against a mid-tier opponent. Mexico sits in fifth, not good considering it has the second-lowest AMD. Not surprisingly, Jamaica sits in sixth place but the Reggae Boyz have played a difficult schedule. That said, the two most difficult home matches are next on the table.

Over the next three matches, we'll find out if Panama is for real. With Mexico at home, and road trips to the U.S. and Costa Rica, the squad may come away with one point or less. The Ticos keep the same AMD value, showing at least one team has a balanced schedule. The Americans gets a summer break to eat some cupcakes (we hope) with probably the lowest three-match AMD possible. A revenge trip to Jamaica, followed by Panama and Honduras at home has American fans dreaming of nine points. The Catrachos hit a rough stretch with a future AMD of 6.0. Mexico, meanwhile, must find points in its next three relatively easy matches. Another slip up leaves El Tri with a major uphill battle in the last four games.

Follow Matt Lawson on Twitter at @lawsonianwonder.

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